Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bari win with a probability of 38.47%. A win for Carrarese had a probability of 32.6% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bari win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.79%) and 0-2 (7.42%). The likeliest Carrarese win was 1-0 (11.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.