Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 55.87%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Bari had a probability of 19.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.93%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.52%), while for a Bari win it was 0-1 (6.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.