Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 46.83%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Sassuolo had a probability of 26.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.03%) and 2-1 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.63%), while for a Sassuolo win it was 0-1 (8.9%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spezia would win this match.