Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carrarese win with a probability of 36.36%. A draw had a probability of 32% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 31.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carrarese win was 1-0 with a probability of 15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.38%) and 2-1 (6.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.25%), while for a Spezia win it was 0-1 (13.67%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.