Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pisa win with a probability of 52.55%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Carrarese had a probability of 20.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pisa win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.16%) and 2-1 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.22%), while for a Carrarese win it was 0-1 (8.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pisa would win this match.