Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pisa win with a probability of 36.71%. A win for Mantova had a probability of 34.64% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pisa win was 0-1 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.67%) and 0-2 (6.91%). The likeliest Mantova win was 1-0 (11.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pisa would win this match.