Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Modena win with a probability of 36.5%. A win for Pisa had a probability of 33.88% and a draw had a probability of 29.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Modena win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.37%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest Pisa win was 0-1 (12.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Modena in this match.