Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pisa win with a probability of 39.53%. A win for Bari had a probability of 31.98% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pisa win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.02%) and 2-0 (7.58%). The likeliest Bari win was 0-1 (10.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pisa would win this match.