Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bari win with a probability of 48.81%. A draw had a probability of 28.2% and a win for Cittadella had a probability of 23.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bari win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.31%) and 2-1 (8.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.68%), while for a Cittadella win it was 0-1 (9.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bari would win this match.