Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cesena win with a probability of 39.09%. A win for Bari had a probability of 32.29% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cesena win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.94%) and 2-0 (7.5%). The likeliest Bari win was 0-1 (11.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.