Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 47.13%. A win for Sampdoria had a probability of 27.8% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.34%) and 0-2 (8.15%). The likeliest Sampdoria win was 1-0 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.