Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 21

Jan 17, 2025 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Roma
3 - 1
Genoa

Dovbyk (25'), El Shaarawy (60'), Leali (73' og.)
Paredes (56')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Masini (33')
Vasquez (18')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Serie A clash between Roma and Genoa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Roma

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Bologna 2-2 Roma
Sunday, January 12 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Genoa

All competitions

Last Game: Genoa 1-0 Parma
Sunday, January 12 at 11.30am in Serie A

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 65.71%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 13.39%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.96%) and 2-1 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.86%), while for a Genoa win it was 0-1 (5.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.

Result
Roma	Draw	Genoa
65.71% ( 0.89)	20.9% ( -0.4)	13.39% ( -0.5)

Both teams to score 44.5% (

-0.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.85% (

0.55)

50.15% (

-0.56)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.88% (

0.49)

72.11% (

-0.49)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.53% (

0.46)

14.46% (

-0.46)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.56% (

0.88)

42.43% (

-0.89)

Genoa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

52.03% (

-0.43)

47.97% (

0.43)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.79% (

-0.32)

83.2% (

0.32)

Score Analysis

Roma 65.69%

Genoa 13.39%

Draw 20.9%

Roma	Draw	Genoa
1-0 @ 13.41% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 12.96% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 9.53% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 8.36% ( 0.22) 3-1 @ 6.14% ( 0.09) 4-0 @ 4.04% ( 0.17) 4-1 @ 2.97% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 2.26% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.56% ( 0.09) 5-1 @ 1.15% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.09% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.24% Total : 65.69%	1-1 @ 9.86% ( -0.17) 0-0 @ 6.94% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 3.5% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.6% Total : 20.9%	0-1 @ 5.1% ( -0.18) 1-2 @ 3.62% ( -0.11) 0-2 @ 1.87% ( -0.09) Other @ 2.8% Total : 13.39%