Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 69.9%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 12.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.7%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.35%), while for a Cagliari win it was 0-1 (3.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.