Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 44.13%. A win for Frosinone had a probability of 31.67% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.38%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest Frosinone win was 1-2 (7.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.