Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 38.72%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 34.02% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.24%) and 0-2 (7%). The likeliest Lazio win was 1-0 (10.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.