Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Frosinone win with a probability of 39.71%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 34.32% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Frosinone win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 2-0 (6.73%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 0-1 (8.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Frosinone would win this match.