Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 57.86%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 18.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.88%) and 2-1 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.05%), while for a Lecce win it was 0-1 (6.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.