Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 50.27%. A draw had a probability of 26.55% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 23.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Atalanta BC win was 0-1 with a probability of 13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.74%) and 1-2 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.47%) , while for a Cagliari win it was 1-0 (8.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.