Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 36.68%. A win for Pisa had a probability of 34.86% and a draw had a probability of 28.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.81%) and 0-2 (6.67%). The likeliest Pisa win was 1-0 (11.51%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.