Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 33

May 3, 2023 at 5pm UK

Gewiss Stadium

Atalanta
3 - 2
Spezia

de Roon (32'), Zappacosta (48'), Muriel (54')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Gyasi (18'), Bourabia (64')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Serie A clash between Atalanta BC and Spezia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atalanta BC

All competitions

Last Game: Torino 1-2 Atalanta
Saturday, April 29 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Spezia

All competitions

Last Game: Spezia 0-2 Monza
Friday, April 28 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 67.69%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 13.52%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.2%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.88%), while for a Spezia win it was 0-1 (4.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.

Result
Atalanta BC	Draw	Spezia
67.69% ( 0.37)	18.79% ( 0.07)	13.52% ( -0.45)

Both teams to score 51.68% (

-1.55)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.27% (

-1.4)

40.73% (

1.4)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.88% (

-1.45)

63.12% (

1.45)

Atalanta BC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.93% (

-0.3)

11.06% (

0.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

64.58% (

-0.66)

35.42% (

0.66)

Spezia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.11% (

-1.54)

41.89% (

1.54)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.66% (

-1.37)

78.34% (

1.37)

Score Analysis

Atalanta BC 67.69%

Spezia 13.52%

Draw 18.79%

Atalanta BC	Draw	Spezia
2-0 @ 11.23% ( 0.45) 1-0 @ 10.2% ( 0.52) 2-1 @ 9.77% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 8.24% ( 0.23) 3-1 @ 7.17% ( -0.1) 4-0 @ 4.54% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 3.95% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 3.12% ( -0.18) 5-0 @ 2% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.74% ( -0.07) 4-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.12) Other @ 4.02% Total : 67.69%	1-1 @ 8.88% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 4.63% ( 0.29) 2-2 @ 4.25% ( -0.19) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.12% Total : 18.79%	0-1 @ 4.03% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 3.86% ( -0.13) 0-2 @ 1.75% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.23% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.09) Other @ 1.52% Total : 13.52%