Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 52.34%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Lazio had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.2%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.01%), while for a Lazio win it was 0-1 (7.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.