Serie A Gameweek 38
May 24, 2026 7.45pm
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

AC Milan vs Cagliari - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

All competitions
Last game
May 17, 2026 11.00am
Genoa 1 - 2 AC Milan
Goals scored
51
Top scorer
Rafael Leao

Cagliari

All competitions
Last game
May 17, 2026 7.45pm
Cagliari 2 - 1 Torino
Goals scored
38
Top scorer
Sebastiano Esposito

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a AC Milan win with a probability of 62.9%. A draw has a probability of 22.11% and a win for Cagliari has a probability of 15.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a AC Milan win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (12.06%) and 2-1 (10.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (10.17%) , while for a Cagliari win it is 0-1 (5.54%).

Result

AC Milan 62.9%
Draw 22.11%
Cagliari 15.03%

Both Teams to Score: 

45.98%

Goals

Over 1.5 73.31% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 26.69% (-0.02)
Over 2.5 49.04%
Under 2.5 50.96%
Over 3.5 27.07% (+0.04)
Under 3.5 72.93% (-0.04)
Over 4.5 16.5% (+0.04)
Under 4.5 83.5% (-0.04)

First Half Winner

AC Milan 43.84% (+0.02)
Draw 41.44%
Cagliari 14.72%

Team To Score First

AC Milan 64.63%
No Goal 7.56%
Cagliari 27.81%

Corners

Over 8 53.77%
Equal 8 11.89%
Under 8 34.33%
Over 9 42.03%
Equal 9 11.74%
Under 9 46.22%
Over 10.5 31.39%
Under 10.5 68.61%

AC Milan Goals

Over 1.5 54.75% (+0.04)
Under 1.5 45.25% (-0.04)
Over 2.5 27.72% (+0.02)
Under 2.5 72.28% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 11.41% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 88.59% (-0.01)

Cagliari Goals

Over 0.5 48.03% (+0.03)
Under 0.5 51.97% (-0.03)
Over 1.5 16.41% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 83.59% (-0.01)
Over 2.5 4.18%
Under 2.5 95.82%
Over 3.5 0.83%
Under 3.5 99.17%

Score analysis

AC Milan 62.91%
Draw 22.1%
Cagliari 15.03%
AC Milan
1-0 @ 13.63%
2-0 @ 12.06%
2-1 @ 10.19%
3-0 @ 7.39% (-0.02)
3-1 @ 5.72% (+0.01)
3-2 @ 2.55% (+0.01)
Other @ 11.37% (+0.01)
Total : 62.91%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.17%
0-0 @ 7.56%
2-2 @ 3.68%
Other @ 0.04%
Total : 22.1%
Cagliari
0-1 @ 5.54%
1-2 @ 3.96%
0-2 @ 2.04%
1-3 @ 1.16%
2-3 @ 1.1% (+0.02)
Other @ 0.79%
Total : 15.03%

Head to Head

Serie A Gameweek 18
Jan 2, 2026 7.45pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Sardegna Arena
  • Gennaro Borrelli 61' yellowcard
  • Riyad Idrissi 61' yellowcard
  • Gianluca Gaetano 66' yellowcard
  • Leonardo Pavoletti 83' yellowcard
  • Nicolò Cavuoti 83' yellowcard
  • goal Rafael Leão 50'
  • yellowcard Samuele Ricci 69'
  • yellowcard Niclas Füllkrug 69'
  • yellowcard Christian Pulisic 79'
  • yellowcard Matteo Gabbia 79'
Serie A Gameweek 20
Jan 11, 2025 7.45pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
  • Alvaro Morata 51' goal
  • Alex Jimenez 82' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Mattia Felici 41'
  • goal Nadir Zortea 55'
  • yellowcard Roberto Piccoli 90'+1'
Serie A Gameweek 12
Nov 9, 2024 5.00pm
3
3
HT : 1 2
FT Sardegna Arena
  • Nadir Zortea 2' goal
  • Gabriele Zappa 53' goal
  • Gabriele Zappa 90' goal
  • goal Rafael Leao 15'
  • goal Rafael Leao 40'
  • yellowcard Youssouf Fofana 61'
  • goal Tammy Abraham 69'
  • yellowcard Theo Hernandez 90'+1'
Serie A Gameweek 36
May 11, 2024 7.45pm
5
1
HT : 1 0
FT Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
  • Ismael Bennacer 28' yellowcard
  • Matteo Gabbia 33' yellowcard
  • Ismael Bennacer 35' goal
  • Christian Pulisic 59' goal
  • Tijjani Reijnders 74' goal
  • Rafael Leao 83' goal
  • Christian Pulisic 86' goal
  • goal Nahitan Nandez 63'
  • yellowcard Yerry Mina 69'
Coppa Italia
Jan 2, 2024 8.00pm
4
1
HT : 2 0
FT Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
  • Luka Jovic 29' goal
  • Luka Jovic 42' goal
  • Chaka Traore 50' goal
  • Rafael Leao 90'+1' goal
  • yellowcard Alessandro Di Pardo 59'
  • yellowcard Alessandro Deiola 70'
  • goal Paulo Azzi 87'
  • yellowcard Paulo Azzi 88'
Serie A Gameweek 6
Sep 27, 2023 5.30pm
1
3
HT : 1 2
FT Sardegna Arena
  • Zito Luvumbo 29' goal
  • Mateusz Wieteska 42' yellowcard
  • Gabriele Zappa 53' yellowcard
  • Gaetano Oristanio 78' yellowcard
  • goal Noah Okafor 40'
  • goal Fikayo Tomori 45'
  • yellowcard Ruben Loftus-Cheek 48'
  • goal Ruben Loftus-Cheek 60'