Preview: AC Milan vs Cagliari - prediction, team news, lineups

Holding their top-four fate within their own hands, AC Milan can book Champions League qualification by beating Cagliari at San Siro on Sunday.

Sunday's Serie A finale will see four teams vying for two remaining tickets, leaving Milan unsure of their place in UEFA's top competition.

Match preview

Occupying the two final Champions League slots, Milan and Roma lead Juventus and Como by two points heading into the final matchday.

However, as Serie A does not initially use goal difference to split sides that finish level, a complicated picture could emerge if the Rossoneri draw on Sunday evening while Juve and Como both win.

Points in head-to-head clashes, then goal difference in those meetings, come before overall league record is considered, and the list goes on even further from there.

Nonetheless, Milan have fared sufficiently well in contests against the other three contenders to mean that a draw might still see them over the line - and even defeat may not lead to disaster.

Indeed, Max Allegri's men would finish runners-up to Inter Milan if they beat his former club Cagliari and Napoli lose, despite enduring a dismal spell since winning the Derby della Madonnina.

Still within striking distance of Inter after that victory, the Rossoneri have had to watch on with envy while their city rivals celebrated a rare domestic double.

By contrast, their own campaign has headed in a totally different direction, leaving them clinging onto a seat at Europe's top table.

Though they nervously edged past Genoa last week, Milan last won back-to-back league matches in early March; heading into their final home fixture, they have also claimed just one point from their last three games at San Siro.

Yet, history suggests they will get the job done: the Lombardy giants have won 18 of their last 21 top-flight home games against Cagliari, drawing the other three.

While Milan have only dropped two points across their last eight final-day fixtures - including a 3-0 victory over Cagliari in 2020 - the Rossoblu have lost five of their last six in Serie A.

Furthermore, after losing 1-0 when the pair met earlier this season, Cagliari have only won one of the last 42 league meetings.

So, with their last away win over Milan dating back to June 1997, precedent will be stacked against the away side this weekend.

More recently, Cagliari confirmed Serie A survival with a 2-1 triumph over Torino last time out, taking them up to the symbolic 40-point mark.

Crucially, the Sardinian side have claimed seven from four games since Inter beat them 3-0 on their last visit to Milan midway through April.

After securing top-flight status for another season, Fabio Pisacane's men must now finish with another trip to Italy's second city.

However, they have picked up just two points from six away fixtures since January, failing to score in either of the last two.

AC Milan Serie A form:

L W D L L W

Cagliari Serie A form:

W L W D L W

Team News

Milan managed to scrape past Genoa without several regulars, but Rafael Leao, Alexis Saelemaekers and Pervis Estupinan can all return from suspension on Sunday.

Veteran playmaker Luka Modric may even start, having made a rapid recovery from his serious facial injury, which leaves Allegri with a full squad to choose from.

Leao has scored six Serie A goals against Cagliari to date but has yet to hit double figures for this season; both he and Christian Pulisic have been struggling for several months.

As a result, Christopher Nkunku - who has converted penalties in his last two matches - and Santiago Gimenez could continue their partnership up front.

After scoring again last week, Cagliari's Sebastiano Esposito is just one goal away from equalling his best tally in a top-flight campaign; the ex-Inter striker now has seven goals and five assists this term.

Rossoblu centre-back Ze Pedro will return from a one-match ban, but several of Pisacane's players are still injured.

ACL victims Mattia Felici and Riyad Idrissi are on a long road to recovery, while Joseph Liteta and Leonardo Pavoletti are also unavailable; Luca Mazzitelli remains a major doubt.

AC Milan possible starting lineup:

Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Saelemaekers, Fofana, Modric, Rabiot, Bartesaghi; Nkunku, Leao

Cagliari possible starting lineup:

Caprile; Ze Pedro, Mina, Dossena; Palestra, Adopo, Gaetano, Folorunsho, Obert; Esposito, Mendy

We say: AC Milan 2-1 Cagliari

As Milan need the points much more - and Cagliari do not travel well - a tense victory will confirm the hosts' Champions League qualification.

After a promising start, it has been a real struggle for a stale Rossoneri side since winter turned to spring, so they will be glad just to get over the line.

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