Why Senegal believe they can pull off a shock against a vulnerable Belgium in the World Cup last 32

Senegal have a date with destiny. This Wednesday 1 July, the Lions of Teranga face Belgium in the World Cup 2026 last 32. It is a qualification that once looked almost out of reach, arriving after defeats to France and Norway, before a commanding 5-0 victory over Iraq lifted them among the best third-placed sides thanks to a goal difference that swung back in their favour.

Belgium, by contrast, will go into this fixture as slight favourites. Ranked ninth in the FIFA standings, the Red Devils remain a reliable force in European football. However, they are far from untouchable. This generation no longer carries the same aura of superiority as the side built around Eden Hazard, Vincent Kompany and Mousa Dembele, even with Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku and Axel Witsel still present.

That leaves room for hope of a Senegalese upset.

A Belgium side less imposing than before

Belgium remain a strong nation in world football but no longer carry the same level of fear factor.

Since the gradual departure of their golden generation, the Red Devils have struggled to recapture the same dominance. Despite the emergence of promising young talent and a youth system that continues to produce quality, manager Rudi Garcia's side appears more beatable. The country has also seen several dual nationals choose to represent Morocco, DR Congo or Greece instead, evidence that its pulling power is no longer as strong as it once was.

The Belgians did finish top of their group, but their path there was far from straightforward. They were held by Egypt and then by Iran, before comfortably beating group minnows New Zealand 5-1.

Those results suggest they can be troubled by sides operating at a level comparable to Senegal's.

Pape Thiaw may have found the right formula

After a worrying display against Norway, Senegal manager Pape Thiaw came under heavy criticism. He responded with bold decisions for the match against Iraq.

Diouf, Nicolas Jackson and Pape Gueye were all dropped from the starting lineup. The manager instead introduced Seck, Ismail Jakobs, Habib Diarra and the young Ibrahim Mbaye. Those calls paid off, restoring balance to the team.

Above all, Senegal rediscovered the qualities that had defined their strength: intensity, aggression in duels and collective energy within a far more coherent 4-3-3 system.

The changes continued to make a difference after the break, too. Substitute Pape Gueye ultimately scored twice, while Iliman Ndiaye once again showed his technical quality between the lines.

For the first time since the start of the tournament, the Lions gave the impression of having rediscovered their true identity.

An impressively deep squad

Few African nations possess a squad as deep as Senegal's.

Despite injuries to Kalidou Koulibaly and goalkeeper Edouard Mendy, Senegal continue to field high-quality players in nearly every position.

Mamadou Sarr, fresh off his move to Chelsea, has still not played a single minute at this World Cup. Iliman Ndiaye, despite an excellent Premier League campaign, is not a guaranteed starter. The same applies to Assane Diao, used sparingly, and Ibrahim Mbaye, whose start against Iraq was rewarded with a strong performance.

That constant internal competition gives Pape Thiaw numerous options depending on how a match unfolds.

Belgium are not Iraq and remain favourites on paper, but the gap is far from unbridgeable. If the Lions can reproduce the intensity shown against Iraq and confirm the tactical adjustments seen in their last match, they have more than enough to engineer one of the surprises of this last 32.