Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Gijon win with a probability of 66.07%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Cartagena had a probability of 14.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Gijon win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.29%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.44%), while for a Cartagena win it was 0-1 (4.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Gijon would win this match.