Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Granada win with a probability of 47.12%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Cartagena had a probability of 25.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Granada win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.45%) and 1-2 (8.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.77%), while for a Cartagena win it was 1-0 (9.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Granada would win this match.