Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Castellon win with a probability of 42.16%. A win for Cartagena had a probability of 30.95% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Castellon win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.66%) and 0-2 (7.71%). The likeliest Cartagena win was 1-0 (9.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.