Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cadiz win with a probability of 39.33%. A win for Sporting Gijon had a probability of 30.6% and a draw had a probability of 30.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cadiz win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.91%) and 2-1 (7.52%). The likeliest Sporting Gijon win was 0-1 (11.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Cadiz in this match.