Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malaga win with a probability of 38.66%. A win for Sporting Gijon had a probability of 33.25% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malaga win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.04%) and 2-0 (7.24%). The likeliest Sporting Gijon win was 0-1 (10.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Malaga would win this match.