Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malaga win with a probability of 51.79%. A draw had a probability of 25.59% and a win for Sporting Gijon had a probability of 22.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malaga win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.9%) and 2-0 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.7%) , while for a Sporting Gijon win it was 0-1 (6.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.