Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 56.36%. A draw had a probability of 23.82% and a win for Malaga had a probability of 19.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Almeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (10.49%) and 2-0 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.2%) , while for a Malaga win it was 1-2 (5.75%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.