Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Racing de Santander win with a probability of 48.81%. A win for Sporting Gijon had a probability of 26.42% and a draw had a probability of 24.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Racing de Santander win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest Sporting Gijon win was 0-1 (7.04%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.