Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Gijon win with a probability of 53.65%. A draw had a probability of 24.53% and a win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 21.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Gijon win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (10.23%) and 2-0 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.87%) , while for a Real Valladolid win it was 0-1 (6.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.