Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Gijon win with a probability of 37.81%. A win for Castellon had a probability of 34.48% and a draw had a probability of 27.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Gijon win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.96%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Castellon win was 0-1 (10.22%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%).