Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burgos win with a probability of 45.8%. A draw had a probability of 27.92% and a win for Sporting Gijon had a probability of 26.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burgos win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.14%) and 2-0 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.32%) , while for a Sporting Gijon win it was 0-1 (9.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.