Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Valladolid win with a probability of 37.82%. A win for Burgos had a probability of 33.55% and a draw had a probability of 28.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Valladolid win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.07%) and 2-0 (6.59%). The likeliest Burgos win was 0-1 (10.34%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood.