Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leganes win with a probability of 37.66%. A win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 35.21% and a draw had a probability of 27.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leganes win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.51%) and 0-2 (6.53%). The likeliest Real Valladolid win was 1-0 (10.01%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.