Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eibar win with a probability of 59.13%. A draw had a probability of 25.82% and a win for Ceuta had a probability of 15.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Eibar win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13%) and 2-1 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.18%) , while for a Ceuta win it was 0-1 (6.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.