Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ceuta win with a probability of 45.8%. A win for Cadiz had a probability of 27.87% and a draw had a probability of 26.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ceuta win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest Cadiz win was 0-1 (7.51%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.