Segunda Division Gameweek 40
May 16, 2026 3.15pm
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Ceuta vs Malaga - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Ceuta

All competitions
Segunda Division
Last game
May 9, 2026 1.00pm
Ceuta 1 - 1 Castellon
Goals scored
44
Top scorer
Kuki Zalazar

Malaga

All competitions
Segunda Division
Last game
May 9, 2026 8.00pm
Malaga 2 - 1 Sporting Gijon
Goals scored
68
Top scorer
Chupe

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Malaga win with a probability of 39.3%. A win for Ceuta has a probability of 34.57% and a draw has a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Malaga win is 1-2 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (8.39%) and 0-2 (5.79%). The likeliest Ceuta win is 2-1 (8.07%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.07%).

Result

Ceuta 34.57%
Draw 26.1%
Malaga 39.3%

Both Teams to Score: 

58.82%

Goals

Over 1.5 77.58%
Under 1.5 22.42%
Over 2.5 54.5%
Under 2.5 45.5%
Over 3.5 32.26%
Under 3.5 67.74%
Over 4.5 18.02%
Under 4.5 81.98%

First Half Winner

Ceuta 27.05%
Draw 43.52%
Malaga 29.43%

Team To Score First

Ceuta 46.7%
No Goal 6.24%
Malaga 47.06%

Corners

Over 8 59.43%
Equal 8 11.7%
Under 8 28.87%
Over 9 47.37%
Equal 9 12.07%
Under 9 40.57%
Over 10.5 36.01%
Under 10.5 64%

Ceuta Goals

Over 1.5 37.74%
Under 1.5 62.26%
Over 2.5 15.25%
Under 2.5 84.75%
Over 3.5 4.88%
Under 3.5 95.12%

Malaga Goals

Over 0.5 73.77%
Under 0.5 26.23%
Over 1.5 41.53%
Under 1.5 58.47%
Over 2.5 17.69%
Under 2.5 82.31%
Over 3.5 5.94%
Under 3.5 94.06%

Score analysis

Ceuta 34.57%
Draw 26.1%
Malaga 39.29%
Ceuta
2-1 @ 8.07%
1-0 @ 7.75%
2-0 @ 5.21%
3-1 @ 3.71%
3-2 @ 2.84%
3-0 @ 2.35%
Other @ 4.64%
Total : 34.57%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.07%
0-0 @ 6.24%
2-2 @ 6.08%
3-3 @ 1.47%
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 26.1%
Malaga
1-2 @ 9.13%
0-1 @ 8.39%
0-2 @ 5.79%
1-3 @ 4.46%
2-3 @ 3.13%
0-3 @ 2.69%
Other @ 5.7%
Total : 39.29%

Head to Head

Segunda Division Gameweek 21
Jan 11, 2026 3.15pm
2
1
HT : 1 1
LIVE Estadio La Rosaleda
  • Carlos Ruiz Rubio 43' yellowcard
  • Carlos Ruiz Rubio 45'+1' goal
  • Aaron Ochoa Moloney 65' yellowcard
  • 65' yellowcard
  • goal Kuki Zalazar 3'
  • yellowcard Yann Bodiger 26'
  • yellowcard Marc Domenech 65'
  • yellowcard 65'
  • yellowcard Salvi 65'
  • yellowcard Aboubacar Bassinga 66'