Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malaga win with a probability of 39.69%. A win for Ceuta had a probability of 34.21% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malaga win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.68%) and 0-2 (5.84%). The likeliest Ceuta win was 1-0 (7.99%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%).