Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Gijon win with a probability of 36.71%. A win for Burgos had a probability of 34.54% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Gijon win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.65%) and 0-2 (6.93%). The likeliest Burgos win was 1-0 (11.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Gijon would win this match.