Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 44.04%. A win for Burgos had a probability of 29.09% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (8.21%). The likeliest Burgos win was 0-1 (9.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Almeria would win this match.