Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Gijon win with a probability of 48.34%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Castellon had a probability of 25.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Gijon win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.27%) and 2-1 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.43%), while for a Castellon win it was 0-1 (8.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Gijon would win this match.