Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Gijon win with a probability of 40.2%. A win for Real Oviedo had a probability of 31.44% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Gijon win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.12%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Real Oviedo win was 0-1 (10.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.21%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Gijon would win this match.