Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Gijon win with a probability of 40.97%. A win for Espanyol had a probability of 30.36% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Gijon win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.09%) and 2-0 (8.02%). The likeliest Espanyol win was 0-1 (10.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Espanyol would win this match.