Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eibar win with a probability of 51.1%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Sporting Gijon had a probability of 21.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Eibar win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.69%) and 2-1 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.4%), while for a Sporting Gijon win it was 0-1 (8.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.