Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Gijon win with a probability of 37.12%. A win for Real Zaragoza had a probability of 33.26% and a draw had a probability of 29.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Gijon win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.45%) and 2-0 (7.22%). The likeliest Real Zaragoza win was 0-1 (12.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sporting Gijon in this match.