Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Zaragoza win with a probability of 36.96%. A win for Cartagena had a probability of 33.28% and a draw had a probability of 29.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Zaragoza win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.38%) and 0-2 (7.21%). The likeliest Cartagena win was 1-0 (12.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Zaragoza would win this match.