Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cartagena win with a probability of 41.99%. A win for Almeria had a probability of 31.92% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cartagena win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (7.32%). The likeliest Almeria win was 0-1 (8.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.