Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Nassr win with a probability of 64.76%. A draw had a probability of 20% and a win for NEOM SC had a probability of 15.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Al-Nassr win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.72%) and 1-0 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.05%) , while for a NEOM SC win it was 1-2 (4.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.